How to choose a solar and heat pump marketing agency: check which of its claims the incentive changes have broken

For a US homeowner buying their own solar system in 2026, the arithmetic changed with Public Law 119-21, enacted on 4 July 2025. It amended section 25D of the tax code so that the Residential Clean Energy Credit stops applying to any expenditure made after 31 December 2025. The IRS describes a credit equal to 30% of the cost of qualifying property installed from 2022 through 2025. That qualifying property includes solar panels, batteries and geothermal heat pumps. The separate home improvement credit, which paid up to $2,000 a year for qualified heat pumps, covers only improvements made through 2025. An ad, landing page or proposal that still promises the federal credit to a homeowner installing in 2026 is offering money that buyer cannot claim, because the IRS page rules out the credit for property placed in service after the end of 2025. The quieter casualty is the agency's own arithmetic: a cost-per-enquiry target or a close rate built on 2025 results was set while the credit still applied, so it says little about a 2026 buyer. The six beliefs below test whether an agency has rebuilt its playbook since, in the UK or the US.

Belief one: the incentive headline sells the job

Government incentives sit close to the price for UK solar panel installers (solar installers in the US) and for heat pump firms, as the schemes below show. The belief is that the grant figure belongs in the headline because it is the biggest number a buyer sees. Test it against the scheme's own pages. Under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, an air source or ground source heat pump attracts £7,500 and an air-to-air one £2,500. An extra £1,500 goes on air source or ground source grants until March 2027 where the home is off mains gas and heated by oil or LPG. A hybrid system, where a heat pump works alongside a gas boiler, gets no grant. Only applicants in England and Wales can use the scheme, while for Scotland the government's guide points to an interest-free loan or a grant for energy efficiency and Northern Ireland's boiler scheme is closed. Ofgem says installers must be MCS certified to be eligible for the scheme. Ofgem also rejected 2,645 applications that failed its eligibility checks in the 2025 to 2026 scheme year. In the US, the Department of Energy lists its home energy rebates as available in select states, so a rebate line that does not name its state is incomplete.

The CMA, the UK competition and consumer regulator, published compliance advice for sellers on 16 July 2024. It makes the seller responsible for keeping government funding information up to date and accurate. It also says to prominently highlight the name of the funding scheme and any important eligibility criteria. It asks sellers to drop the word "cashback" for funding that goes straight to the installer. That is guidance on consumer law, not a ruling.

To see the problem, picture one illustrative headline, "£7,500 off your heat pump", shown to every buyer. A buyer in Scotland reads an offer that is not there, because the scheme covers England and Wales only. A buyer quoted for a hybrid system reads a promise the scheme does not keep, since there is no grant for a hybrid heat pump system. An off-gas household is undersold, because the line leaves out the extra £1,500 until March 2027 for off-gas homes that burn oil or LPG. One headline cannot be right for all three, so the fix is a version per buyer, each naming the scheme and the nation, and a named owner who changes the copy the day Ofgem's figure moves. Ask the agency which of those decisions it has already made on a live account, and who checks each incentive line against the scheme page every month.

Belief two: a bigger saving claim wins more enquiries

Test this against what the UK ad regulator did in March 2026. In one ruling the ASA found against a Hive newspaper ad promising bills "up to 94%" lower in the first year with solar, partly because nothing in the ad disclosed that the 94% came from a model or which assumptions sat behind it. The ruling is dated 4 March 2026. It told the advertiser that ads for solar installation with a savings claim should include qualifying information about the type of installation, any complexities the claim depends on, or whether the figures were modelled. On the same date it ruled against a British Gas social media ad for heat pumps. The ruling records that 34% of 194 customers achieved the savings claim in the ad within the scenario British Gas had modelled. On those figures, about two in three did not.

Both savings leaned on a tariff from the advertiser's own energy group, as the Hive and British Gas rulings set out. The CMA's advice also covers solar PV panels as well as heat pumps. For an "up to" figure, it expects credible evidence that a significant share of buyers have a good chance of reaching it. Two other sources shape a saving in this trade. MCS, the UK certification scheme for installers, publishes standards for how a system performance estimate is carried out. Ofgem says SEG licensees set the rate and contract terms, that the rate must always be above zero, and that generators should shop around. No installer can therefore fix an export income.

As an illustrative rewrite: before, the ad promised to shrink bills "by up to 94%". After, the figure is tied to a named home, system size, battery and export tariff, labelled as modelled, and set beside the share of real customers who reached it. Ask the agency, for each saving figure it already runs, which of those it can show you today and whether the generation estimate follows the MCS method.

Belief three: once the credit is gone, free offers are the quick way back to enquiries

Test it against the regulator. In the UK, the CMA tells sellers not to advertise a product as "free" if it isn't. The pressure to find a new hook is real. Roth Capital analysts Jesse Pichel and Lev Seleznov set out their outlook for US solar in an opinion piece on 26 February 2026. They wrote that with the residential credit no longer available, installers and financiers were increasingly focused on prepaid structures, and that not all prepaid offerings are leases. Treat that as one firm's reading of the market rather than survey data. It still shows why a finance product needs its real name in an ad, since a prepaid plan, a lease and a loan are different promises.

Suppose, for illustration, an agency pitches a "no upfront cost" banner. Three questions sort a sound version from a risky one. What is the product called: prepaid plan, lease or loan? What will the buyer pay in total, and does that figure sit beside the banner? Who signed the wording off? If the agency says the lender writes the wording, ask to see the lender's wording before any ad is built around it.

Belief four: a deadline is the best urgency

Some deadlines are real and can be sourced. HMRC lists solar panels and air and ground source heat pumps among the energy-saving materials that qualify for the zero rate of VAT when installed in homes. The same notice says the installation of these materials reverts to the reduced rate of 5% from 1 April 2027. Ofgem says the grant rises to £9,000 for air-to-water or ground source heat pumps in eligible off-gas grid properties until 31 March 2027. Invented scarcity is a different matter. The Renewable Energy Consumer Code's consumer advice calls high-pressure selling one of the most important sections of the Code, and its list of representatives not to sign with includes one who offers a discount for signing that day or claims limited availability. That advice is about company representatives, so check the Code's own wording before a limited slots banner goes live.

Here is an illustrative rewrite. Before, the urgency was "only three install slots left". After, it is the VAT or grant date with HMRC or Ofgem named, and a different message ready for the week after that date passes. Ask the agency which official page states each date it plans to quote, and what replaces the urgency once the date has gone.

Belief five: a case study from another installer shows what the agency can do for you

Dates and channels decide whether it does. A US result earned in 2025 came while the credit equalled 30% of qualifying costs, and a result from 2026 did not. In the UK, MCS says the grant paid for close to half of the heat pumps installed in 2025, so a heat pump case study is partly a grant case study. MCS also reports that new-build homes made up 28% of its certified installations in 2025, rising to over 36% for solar. Ask whether a solar case study came from new-build volume or from owners who found the installer themselves. Place matters too. The Roth Capital analysts wrote that market participants in California and the Northeast reported more stable conditions than those serving other regions. In our view, a case study that omits its year, region, incentive and kind of buyer cannot be compared with your own pipeline. Ask which of those produced each result the agency shows, which still hold, and whether you can speak to the installer behind it.

Belief six: a slow quarter means the ads have stopped working

They may have, but a market can also move under a healthy campaign. The Roth Capital analysts wrote that residential solar participants expected 2026 to be a down year for the segment, although the scale of the decline was still debated. The UK heat pump grant tells a different story, because Ofgem received 45,880 Boiler Upgrade Scheme applications in the 2025 to 2026 scheme year, 19% more than in the year before. One market's fall or rise is not a benchmark for another, so an agency that blames or credits the market needs a comparison it can name.

An installer selling both products has one built in. In our view, if solar enquiries fall while heat pump enquiries hold, the solar market is the first suspect; if both fall in the same week as a change to the account, the campaign is. If enquiries hold but booked surveys fall, look at the landing page and the eligibility questions before blaming either market. If enquiries fall in one nation or state and not another, check whether an incentive line in that place went out of date. Our related post on why agencies over-promise and under-deliver covers the early signs of a promise that will not hold.

Ask the agency a hypothetical: if your enquiries fell by a third next month, which of those comparisons would it run first, and by which week would it propose a change?

When an installer should wait before hiring an agency

Two incentive problems make an agency premature. The first is wanting grant-funded heat pump work without MCS certification: Ofgem says installers must be MCS certified to be eligible for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, so certification comes before any campaign. The second is not yet knowing which incentives apply to your jobs in your nation or state. Build a one-page sheet from the official pages cited above and update it monthly; no agency can know your area better than those pages do.

In both cases the cheaper route is yours to take. A freelancer can rewrite your incentive copy as a one-off task, and a member of your own team can own the incentive sheet. Once both are settled you have something true to advertise, and that is the point to start approaching agencies. The Social Target is one of them; its page on marketing for solar and heat pump installers describes the paid search, social, landing page and follow-up work it sells to installers.

If your calendar has room and your incentive claims check out against the official pages, tell us about your business, including the nations or states you install in.